After contract rollover, warrants have not yet flowed out. There is a strong reluctance to budge on prices for Shanghai spot copper [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM News on July 16:

       Today, the spot price of SMM #1 copper cathode against the August 2508 contract was reported at a premium of 70-120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 77,970 to 78,150 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper prices started to fall from 78,080 yuan/mt, continuing to decline during the morning trading hours. After repeatedly touching a low of 77,900 yuan/mt, prices began to rebound, returning to 78,030 yuan/mt near the morning close. The price spread between futures contracts for different months remained basically flat, with an estimated import profit margin loss of around 500 yuan/mt for SHFE copper in the current month.

       During the day, suppliers continued to quote high premiums. Mainstream standard-quality copper was in short supply, with premiums ranging from 70 to 100 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, such as that from Guixi, had additional supply, with transaction premiums ranging from 100 to 130 yuan/mt. SX-EW copper remained in tight supply, and its price did not follow the decline. Russian supply continued to be quoted at relatively low prices, with discounts of around 100 yuan/mt.

       Looking ahead to tomorrow, as warrants have not been released in large quantities during the delivery period, it is expected that spot copper prices will remain firm. However, brand price differentials may continue to widen, and transaction prices in the Changzhou area may decline further.